Karnataka has recorded its fourth-lowest June rainfall in the past five decades, receiving just 116 mm of rain against the normal 199 mm, leaving the state with a 42% rainfall deficit and raising concerns over agriculture and water availability.

According to data from the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Management Centre (KSNDMC), only 2023 witnessed a worse June rainfall deficit in recent history, when the state received just 87 mm of rainfall. Between 1976 and 2026, Karnataka experienced more than 21 years of below-normal June rainfall, with rainfall falling below 190 mm.

In contrast, the state recorded 19 above-normal June seasons during the same period, each receiving more than 210 mm of rain. June 1991 remains the wettest in the last 50 years with 294 mm of rainfall, followed by 2007 (290 mm), 1980 (273 mm) and 1992 (271 mm).

Rainfall becoming increasingly erratic

The data indicates that June rainfall has become more unpredictable over the past two decades.

During the 1980s, Karnataka recorded six above-normal rainfall years, three normal years and only one below-normal year. The 1990s also saw predominantly normal or above-normal rainfall, although several years experienced exceptionally heavy rain.

Since 2000, however, the trend has shifted. The decade witnessed seven below-normal June rainfall years, only three above-normal years and one year of extremely heavy rainfall (2007). Between 2011 and 2020, the state recorded five below-normal years, three normal years and two above-normal years.

In the first six years of the current decade, Karnataka has already seen three below-normal and three normal June rainfall seasons, with 2023 and 2026 ranking among the driest in the last 50 years.

Farmers face uncertainty

Experts warn that a good June is vital for the state’s agriculture as it kick-starts the kharif sowing season and replenishes lakes, tanks and other water sources.

Agro-economist Prakash Kammardi said June rainfall is especially important for ragi cultivation in South Karnataka and for crops such as soybean, cereals and other rain-fed crops in North Karnataka.

He noted that while these may not always be the main crops grown by farmers, they provide financial security and encourage cultivation of major crops such as paddy and sugarcane.

Farmers typically begin sowing maize, paddy, ragi, jowar, tur, groundnut, cotton and soybean only after the soil receives adequate moisture. When rainfall is insufficient, sowing is often delayed or abandoned altogether.

Kammardi said climate change has significantly altered Karnataka’s agricultural calendar over the past two decades and stressed the need to help farmers adapt to increasingly uncertain monsoon patterns.

Although the southwest monsoon has recovered in several recent years, bringing above-normal seasonal rainfall overall, experts caution that the possible influence of El Niño could once again affect rainfall during July this year.